|
Other Outlooks
Subscribe to Outlook
News
Contact US
|
 |
April 2008
U.S. High Schools Face Enrollment Decline
 After years of rapid enrollment growth, American high schools, public and private, are about to enter a period of enrollment decline, according to a new report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
Starting with the 2007-08 school year, high school enrollment is expected to drop from its current all-time high of 16,250,499 to 15,744,953 in 2011-12, after which it will embark on a slow climb back to current levels by 2016-17 (see table). The number of high school graduates will follow a similar course, shifting downward from the current level of 3,340,235 to a projected low of 3,188,642 in 2013-14 (see table, next page).
 Although the WICHE report projects aggregate national enrollment declines for secondary schools, the story is not uniform state by state or region by region. For example, between now and 2021-22, the number of high school graduates will drop by 13 percent in the Northeast and 7 percent in the Midwest, but the West will see 5 percent growth and the South 10 percent growth during the same period.
“In the next decade, our nation will grapple with dramatic population changes,” said David Longanecker, president of WICHE. “Many states in the West and South will struggle with explosive growth in both school enrollments and graduate numbers, while in the Northeast and Midwest, a high number of states will see declines as their populations age or move away.”
The WICHE report, titled Knocking at the College Door, categorizes states based on the expected change in the number of graduates during a 10-year period starting 2004-05. Eight states are expected to have the number of graduates dwindle by 10 percent or more during the decade in question (Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming). Ten states will experience declines of between 10 and 5 percent (Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Wisconsin). Seventeen states look like they will be relatively stable in the number of graduates, with changes in the range of +/- 5 percent (Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington). Five states plus the District of Columbia will see increases of between 5 and 10 percent (Alabama, Colorado, Delaware, District of Columbia, New Jersey, and Virginia). Four states are slated for what the report calls “rapid expansion,” with increases of between 10 and 20 percent (Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, and North Carolina). And six states will see “explosive growth,” with increases greater than 20 percent (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas, and Utah).
The report includes breakout data for public and private schools, referring to the latter as “nonpublic schools.” Looking at elementary and secondary enrollment, there were 47.2 million students in grades 1 through 12 in 2000-01, including 14.6 million in grades 9-12. Private schools that year accounted for 9.9 percent of all students and 8.7 percent of high school students. Among the 2.8 million high school graduates in 2001, 281,000 had private school diplomas. Comparing the secondary school enrollment data with graduation data, private schools produced 9.9 percent of high school graduates in 2001, while enrolling only 8.7 percent of high school students. In all years covered in the report, private schools accounted for a higher share of the nation’s high school graduates than high school enrollment, suggesting success in guiding students to graduation.
In 2007-08 the number of students in private secondary schools hit a peak at 1,299,207, accounting for 8 percent of all high school students. The same year saw 306,447 private school students receive a diploma, 9.2 percent of the nation’s diploma recipients. In the years for which data are provided, private high school enrollment share ranges from 8.7 percent in 2000-01 to a projected 7.5 percent in 2018-19. The share of graduates ranges from 9.9 percent (during several school years from 2000-03) to a projected 8.5 percent in 2021-22.
Describing the private school graduation trend, the report notes that “2007-08 will set the high-water mark for nonpublic graduates, at more than 306,000. Thereafter, projections indicate a substantial decline that will last all the way through 2014-15 before showing any signs of recovery. In the intervening seven years, the number of nonpublic graduates nationally will fall by over 43,000 or 14 percent.”
Knocking at the College Door also examines the current and projected racial and ethnic composition of American high school students, but does so only for public schools. According to WICHE, all four geographic regions covered in the report “will see increasing student diversity, driven by declines in the share of White non-Hispanic graduates and increases in Hispanic numbers, as well as those of Asian Pacific/Islanders.” Some regions will see greater change than others. “In the West, the class of 2010 is projected to be the first “majority minority” class (with less than 50 percent of graduates being White non-Hispanic), while the South will see its first majority minority graduating class in 2017.”
Richard L. Ferguson, CEO and chairman of the board of ACT, which develops and administers the college admission exam, noted that more minority students are taking the ACT exam and planning to attend college. And although scores have been gradually improving, “ACT data suggest we must do a much better job of preparing these young people for success.” ACT is a sponsor of the WICHE report, along with the College Board.
College Board President Gaston Caperton sounded a similar concern about ensuring that the new wave of college students is well prepared: “If the United States is to maintain its place of leadership in a global economy, our society must educate all of our citizens, especially those students who have been poorly served in the past.”
Private schools can help with that task. The four-year college-going rate and average test scores on college admissions exams, AP exams, and other standardized tests for minority students in private schools are higher than those for minority students in government schools.
The report is available at <http://www.wiche.edu/policy/knocking/1992-2022/ing/1992-2022/knocking_complete_book.pdf>.
Top of Page
State CAPEs Promote Opportunities for Students
The following article continues and completes an article from last month providing highlights from the annual reports of state CAPE activities.
 Michigan
The Michigan Association of Non-Public Schools (MANS), which already represents over 500 schools serving over 100,000 students, has recently expanded its membership to include schools affiliated with the Association of Christian Schools International.
Projects at MANS include a shared purchasing program that cuts the costs of natural gas and electricity for participating schools, a marketing initiative to promote faith-based schools, and professional development conferences.
On the legislative front, MANS was successful recently in convincing the state’s House of Representatives to include graduates of religious and independent high schools in legislation to provide college scholarships to students living in targeted poverty areas.
Missouri
The Missouri CAPE reports that the state’s Virtual Instruction Program (MoVIP) for K-12 students in public and private schools is growing. More money for the program has been proposed by the governor, and courses for middle school students are being added to current offerings for elementary and secondary school students.
The MoCAPE community continues to have concerns about some school districts not meeting the consultation and equitable services provisions of the No Child Left Behind Act as they apply to the participation of students in religious and independent schools. Steps to address the situation are being proposed to state education officials.
New Mexico
Founded in 1975, the New Mexico Association of Nonpublic Schools (NMANS) is committed to ensuring that students in religious and independent schools “receive the benefits of diversity, free choice, and excellence in education through collaboration and communication.” Approximately 32,000 students in the state attend schools represented by NMANS. Projects this year include membership expansion and support for tuition tax credit legislation.
New York
The New York State Coalition for Independent and Religious Schools continues to advocate for state programs of benefit to the private school community. Current programs include aid for carrying out certain services mandated by the state, as well as aid for learning technology, textbooks, library materials, computer software and hardware, and academic intervention services. Several bills promoting school choice have been introduced in the state legislature, including a bill providing tax credits for individuals who incur educational expenses and one providing tax benefits for corporations that contribute to public schools or to tuition scholarship organizations.
Oregon
The Oregon Federation of Independent Schools (OFIS) “works to ensure that Oregon private schools are able to operate with a minimum of government influence or control so parents can choose from a wide range of educational options for their children.”
OFIS officials report that the state’s board of education “adopted new graduation requirements that both improve public schools and make life easier for private schools.” A requirement that schools provide credit for demonstrated academic proficiency “will allow a much easier transition for private and home schoolers into public schools by allowing them credit for what they know.”
Governor Ted Kulongoski, at the request of OFIS, has proclaimed February 7 as Oregon Private School Appreciation Day, recognizing the contributions of private schools to the education of children in the state.
Texas
The Texas Association of Non-Public Schools (TANS) is already getting set for the 2009 state legislative session. One goal is to remove certain requirements that were recently placed on accredited private schools. Another is to work closely with a sister organization, the Texas Private School Accreditation Commission, to promote the accreditation of all private schools in the state. TANS also intends to generate grassroots support behind legislation of benefit to the private school community.
Virginia
The Virginia Council for Private Education has been busy keeping track of legislation affecting private schools, including legislation relating to athletics, textbooks, universal preschool, and school choice. The choice bill (HB 1164), which passed the House but failed in the Senate Committee on Finance, would have provided $20 million in tax credits for contributions made to public school foundations ($10 million) or tuition scholarship foundations ($10 million). The credit would have covered 100 percent of contributions by citizen taxpayers, with a credit cap of $800 for individuals and $1,200 for married couples, and 90 percent of contributions for businesses.
Washington
With state education officials undertaking a rewrite of math and science standards, the Washington Federation of Independent Schools (WFIS) has been providing input into the process. It has also been working with the Department of Health on developing language to implement K-12 environmental requirements for schools, covering issues such as air and water quality, pesticide use, and playground safety.
WFIS sponsored a seminar on private school law last spring and a workshop on federal programs and other topics last fall. The annual dinner in February featured a keynote address by CAPE Board Secretary Patrice Maynard from the Association of Waldorf Schools.
Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Council of Religious and Independent Schools (WCRIS) represents just over 800 schools that serve 110,443 students. WCRIS officials report that the state’s “political landscape shifted dramatically after the last election” resulting in the Senate controlled by Democrats and the Assembly controlled by Republicans. As a result, several issues affecting religious and independent schools ended in stalemate, including legislation relating to the dissemination of information on the human papillomavirus, or HPV, and legislation to address a court decision that shut down the state’s virtual schools.
Top of Page
Choice Initiatives Move in 4 States
The school choice movement experienced its own version of March Madness last month as initiatives in four states made significant advances.
In Louisiana, the state legislature passed, and Gov. Bobby Jindal signed, a bill to provide a tax deduction of up to $5,000 per student for educational expenses connected with private education, public education, or home schooling. Deductions can be taken for costs such as tuition and fees, uniforms, textbooks, and supplies.
Florida’s Tax and Budget Reform Commission cleared the way for a historic ballot vote this November to repeal the state’s Blaine amendment, which prohibits revenue from the state to be used “directly or indirectly in aid of any...sectarian institution.”
In another development, a bill to expand Florida’s corporate tax credit program over the next five years cleared a committee vote in the state Senate last month. Similar legislation is working its way through the House.
Corporate tax credits also gained ground in Maryland when the state Senate approved legislation to provide $5 million in tax credits for corporations that donate funds to charitable organizations supporting students and teachers in public or private schools. The “Building Opportunities for All Students and Teachers” (BOAST) credit program would allow businesses to take credits valued at 75 percent of their contributions. Of the $5 million set aside for credits, $3 million would help students and teachers in private schools and $2 million would help their counterparts in public schools.
Finally, on April 1 the Georgia Senate approved legislation providing tax credits for individual or corporate contributions to tuition scholarship programs. The House approved the bill in March.
Top of Page
CAPENotes
• Fast Facts About Private Schools: On April 1, the National Center for Education Statistics released its biennial report on private school demographics, so this month we provide several “fast facts,” each extracted verbatim from Characteristics of Private Schools in the United States: Results From the 2005–2006 Private School Universe Survey:
• In the fall of 2005, there were 28,996 private elementary and secondary schools with 5,057,520 students and 435,485 full-time-equivalent (FTE) teachers in the United States.
• The average school size in 2005-06 was 174.4 students across all private schools.
• The average pupil/teacher ratio in 2005-06 was 11.6 across all private schools.
• There were 307,249 high school graduates from private schools in school year 2004–05.
• Ninety-eight percent (98.3) of 12th graders enrolled in private schools around October 1, 2004, graduated in 2004-05.
The complete report is available as a PDF file at <http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2008315>.
• The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has established a Web site, Highlights for High School, that provides “resources to improve science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) instruction at the high school level.”
“Strength in K-12 math and science will be increasingly important for America if the nation is to continue to lead in today’s innovation economy,” said MIT President Susan Hockfield. “Highlights for High School will provide students and teachers with innovative tools to supplement their math and science studies. We hope it will inspire students to reach beyond their required classwork to explore more advanced material and might also encourage them to pursue careers in science and engineering.”
According to an MIT news release, the site “features more than 2,600 video and audio clips, animations, lecture notes and assignments taken from actual MIT courses, and categorizes them to match the Advanced Placement physics, biology and calculus curricula. Demonstrations, simulations, animations and videos give educators engaging ways to present STEM concepts, while videos illustrate MIT’s hands-on approach to the teaching of these subjects.”
Access to Highlights for High School is available at <http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/hs/home/home/index.htm>.
• The National Endowment for the Humanities has announced Picturing America, “an innovative program that helps teach American history and provides students with a gateway to the broader world of the humanities.” The program, which was unveiled at the White House, depicts significant people and moments in U.S. history using American art.
“Thousands of schools, and millions of people, will have the chance to view this collection in their own communities,” said First Lady Laura Bush. “Schools and community libraries that apply now—between now and April 15, 2008—will receive this collection. Today we invite all schools and libraries to apply for this collection—and that means public, private, parochial and charter schools, home school consortia, and community libraries.”
The collection involves 40 works of art by American artists. According to the NEH news release, “The NEH will distribute large, high-quality reproductions of these images, along with a teachers resource book, lesson plans, and materials, to schools and libraries nationwide.”
“Our goal is eventually to have Picturing America in every school and public library in the United States,” said NEH Chairman Bruce Cole.
The program’s Web site summarizes Picturing America this way: “By bringing high-quality reproductions of notable American art into public and private schools, libraries, and communities, Picturing America gives participants the opportunity to learn about our nation’s history and culture in a fresh and engaging way. The program uses art as a catalyst for the study of America—the cultural, political, and historical threads woven into our nation’s fabric over time.”
Schools can apply to receive the collection and find out more about the program at <http://picturingamerica.neh.gov/>.
Top of Page
|
|
